If Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) has an okay outcome, which of these tags will make up the reason?
IA
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Brakes hit 52%Líder entre 13 opções
Brakes hit 52%Previsores
25
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado24/05/24, 20:48 UTC1/01/00, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsIf Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer's "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" market resolve N/A?
Manifold Markets[Independent MC Version] If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reasons?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegras
An okay outcome is defined in Eliezer Yudkowsky's market as:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
- In response to Eliezer Yudkowsky's market, Rob Bensinger organized the scenarios with a set of tags giving them a pretty ontology.
- This market resolves YES for the tags that are true of the world when AI has an okay outcome.
- This is great, but the options are long, dense, and partly overlapping, in a way that made it trickier for me to assign relative probabilities.
- To help with that, I made this graphic putting the options in order and assigning tags to clusters of related scenarios.