Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 68.2%
Previsores
6
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 minutos
28/08/24, 01:03 UTC1/01/01, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
If AGI has an okay outcome, which researcher first publicised the agenda that was most responsible?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome because of a new paradigm, where did AI progress stall out?
Manifold MarketsIf a huge alignment effort is part of the reason for AI having an okay outcome, will it involve a new AI paradigm?
Manifold MarketsIf AI has an okay outcome and there was no special effort, was it because alignment was easy?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketRegras
An okay outcome is defined in Eliezer Yudkowsky's market as:
- An outcome is "okay" if it gets at least 20% of the maximum attainable cosmopolitan value that could've been attained by a positive Singularity (a la full Coherent Extrapolated Volition done correctly), and existing humans don't suffer death or any other awful fates.
- This resolves YES if I can easily point to the single AGI that has an okay outcome, and NO otherwise.