Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 78.7%
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10
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado18/10/25, 20:25 UTC31/12/27, 20:14 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketRegras
This market resolves YES if Elon Musk says he considers Grok 5 to be AGI.
- Grok 5 means the model and variations named Grok 5 (Grok 5 Pro, Grok 5 Code, Grok 5 Fast), and any of them being called AGI will count.
- A Grok 5.5, 5.1, 5.7, or other number variation wouldn't count.
- Elon has to refer to it as full AGI, not "very close to" or "at moments", or similar partial statements.
- The definition of AGI will be the one Elon uses too: "Capable of doing anything a human with a computer can do", though Grokipedia could be used as a secondary source.
- Date will be extended if necessary until Grok 5 releases.
Mercados abertos
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 79% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk? é resolvido?
- Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como Grok 5 considered AGI by Elon Musk? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This market resolves YES if Elon Musk says he considers Grok 5 to be AGI.