Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualAnthropic 80%Líder entre 5 opções
Previsores
9
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado21/04/25, 00:36 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will "Which side of the AI safety community are you in?" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsAI safety community successfully advocates for a global AI development slowdown by December 2027
Manifold MarketsU.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
Polymarket[ACX 2026] Will the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the U.S. enact an AI safety federal statute or executive order in 2026?
FutuurTop AI model in September?
KalshiRegras
Will not bet on this market.
- Will resolve based on general sentiment, as reflected in highly upvoted LW posts, major articles, etc. For calibration, my current read of the general sentiment of the AI safety community is that the median person currently trusts Anthropic (and maybe somewhat Deepmind).
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 135,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 102,7 mil
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 325 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Frontier labs ~trusted by the AI safety community at the end of 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota Anthropic em 80% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Frontier labs ~trusted by the AI safety community at the end of 2026? é resolvido?
- Frontier labs ~trusted by the AI safety community at the end of 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Frontier labs ~trusted by the AI safety community at the end of 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Will not bet on this market.