Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 90.3%
Previsores
18
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 15 horas
Desatualizado10/01/26, 06:31 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will any current or former president of the United States be assassinated before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Catalonia's self-exiled former president, Carles Puigdemont, return to Catalonia a free man before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen, where or how will Trump die?
Manifold MarketsWill mail-order mifepristone access be restricted nationwide?
KalshiHeidi Overton confirmed as FDA Commissioner by which date?
PolymarketWill a bill curbing pharmaceutical monopolies become law?
KalshiRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if former President Joe Biden dies at any point during 2026.
- Resolution will be determined by major news sources reporting his death.
- The market resolves NO if Biden survives through December 31, 2026.
- Biden was born on November 20, 1942, making him 83 years old as of January 2026.
- He became the first president to turn 80 years old while in office.
Mercados abertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.3pt18%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom-0.7pt15%
+48 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,1 bi
- Volume 24h
- € 2,1 mi
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance51%
- Marco Rubio+0.3pt16%
- Ron DeSantis-0.1pt3%
+39 mais resultados
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro-33.7pt51%
- Delcy Rodríguez+29.5pt42%
- No Head of State-0.3pt1%
+13 mais resultados
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party+0.5pt90.1%
- Republican Party-1.3pt9.9%
- Volume total
- € 29,2 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 621,6 mil
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt94%
- Yes-2.0pt6%
- Volume total
- € 19,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 488,8 mil
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- Democrats sweep+1.0pt59%
- D-House, R-Senate+1.0pt30%
- Republicans sweep-1.3pt10%
+1 mais resultados
- 2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- What will Trump say this week?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Trump out as President by September 30?
- Los Angeles Mayor winner?
- Brazil Presidential Election
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- Next French Presidential Election
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Former president Biden dead in 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 90% em 19 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Former president Biden dead in 2026? é resolvido?
- Former president Biden dead in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Former president Biden dead in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria