Eliezer Yudkowsky is impressed by a machine learning model, and believes that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, by the end of 2026
One-OffIATecnologiaCiência3m
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 87%
Previsores
65
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado5/12/22, 06:41 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
Let's operationalize it this way:
- "If Eliezer either expresses that the model may be very helpful for alignment research, or Eliezer strongly implies that he feels this way (eg. by indicating that it is more useful than an additional MIRI-level researcher), then we consider this market resolved to YES."