Conditional on Trump getting elected, how will the US democracy index have changed by the end of his term.
Política2a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Decrease drastically (>= 0.68 && <= 0.72) 35.6%Líder entre 6 opções
Decrease drastically (>= 0.68 && <= 0.72) 35.6%Previsores
27
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado9/10/24, 21:21 UTC31/03/29, 21:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegras
WIll resolve based on the Electoral Deomcracy Index from our world in data which is based on the V-Dem report.
- 2023 the US got 0.85.
- Will resolve to NA if trump is not elected in 2024 (all mana returned).
- Otherwise, will resolve once the data for 2028 is released (probably march 2029).
- https://ourworldindata.org/explorers/democracy?tab=chart&time=1975..latest&showSelectionOnlyInTable=1&country=~USA&Dataset=Varieties+of+Democracy&Metric=Electoral+democracy&Sub-metric=Main+index
- For reference the following indexes were given in 2023.