Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 67.7%
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42
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado5/11/23, 02:47 UTC2/01/35, 04:59 UTC
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Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Resolves YES if a global AI pause is enacted at any time before 2035, and we survive to 2035.
- Resolves NO if we survive without enacting an AI pause
- For the purpose of this question: A global AI pause is a pause agreed on or forced upon countries that cumutatively make up over 95% of AI research between 2024 and the year the pause comes into effect.
- A pause must force all AI training within the affected countries to be strongly restricted or banned, according to specific and extensive rules and restrictions.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
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- € 224,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 160,5 mil
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
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POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 344,9 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
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- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 68% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted? é resolvido?
- Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de janeiro de 2035.
- Como Conditional on humanity surviving to 2035, will a global AI pause have been enacted? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES if a global AI pause is enacted at any time before 2035, and we survive to 2035.