Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 68.2%
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Atualizado há 48 minutos
Atrasado5/11/23, 02:47 UTC2/01/35, 04:59 UTC
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Resolves YES if a global AI pause is enacted at any time before 2035, and we survive to 2035.
- Resolves NO if we survive without enacting an AI pause
- For the purpose of this question: A global AI pause is a pause agreed on or forced upon countries that cumutatively make up over 95% of AI research between 2024 and the year the pause comes into effect.
- A pause must force all AI training within the affected countries to be strongly restricted or banned, according to specific and extensive rules and restrictions.
- Update 2026-09-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A 6-month pause qualifies as a global AI pause for the purpose of this market's resolution.