Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualBefore 2027-04-01 94.5%Líder entre 9 opções
Previsores
10
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+44.5 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado28/10/26, 22:03 UTC1/04/27, 03:59 UTC
Tendências
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Manifold MarketsRegras
The '+' means any version at or above 5.6 counts: if Anthropic skips 5.6 and releases Claude Opus 5.7 or Opus 6, that still counts for the purpose of this market.
- Minor changes to the name, or other names for a model generally expected to be called Claude Opus 5.6, will also count.
- The model must be accessible without individual vetting or invitation — free or paid, via API or product.
- Open, non-selective waitlists count.
- Closed betas, invite-only access, researcher programs, A/B tests, and anonymous benchmark appearances do not.
- Country-level bans do not prevent resolution.