Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualWarren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway 100%Líder entre 17 opções
Previsores
55
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+98.4 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 18 horas
Desatualizado9/07/25, 21:43 UTC31/12/26, 22:25 UTC
Tendências
100%
100%
99.6%
0.5%
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
CEO Tontine - which three of these twenty CEOs will survive longest?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a solution to the Navier-Stokes Millennium problem before IPO?
Manifold MarketsAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRegras
The first three CEOs to be out will be marked 100%, then everyone else will be marked 0%.
- Out means not CEO anymore.
- That includes the company being dissolved, bought, etc. If the company splits, to survive they must be leader of the largest part.
- If the company is bought they can only survive by being the CEO of the resulting company.
- If the company changes name, no issue as long as they're still CEO.
Mercados abertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volume total
- € 224,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 160,5 mil
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,3 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 344,9 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de CEO Tontine - next three CEOs out will go to 100%, others to 0% - one Out?
- A Manifold Markets cota Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway em 100% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando CEO Tontine - next three CEOs out will go to 100%, others to 0% - one Out é resolvido?
- CEO Tontine - next three CEOs out will go to 100%, others to 0% - one Out deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como CEO Tontine - next three CEOs out will go to 100%, others to 0% - one Out é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The first three CEOs to be out will be marked 100%, then everyone else will be marked 0%.