Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 87%
Previsores
3
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado24/10/26, 10:18 UTC23/11/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
My current number: 30%.
- That's my probability that, by January 1, 2030, there is an AI system that can do essentially any job a median remote worker can do, at a cost comparable to paying that worker, and that this is broadly accepted (not just claimed by the lab that built it).
- Your job is to change that number by a lot, in either direction.
- Argue that I'm too high, or that I'm too low.
- How to play: comment on this market with an argument, evidence, a forecast, a paper, a demo, a question I can't answer well.
- I reply to every comment here and say whether it moved me and why.
