Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual2050 or earlier 19.7%Líder entre 10 opções
Previsores
118
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 19 horas
Desatualizado1/04/24, 14:37 UTC31/01/00, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
When will Forecasting Bots beat the best Superforecasters
Manifold MarketsHow low will the Claude Opus 4.8 input token price get in 2026?
KalshiHow low will the OpenAI GPT 5.5 input token price get in 2026?
KalshiHow high will the US national average gas price get in 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow low will the Google Gemini 3.5 Flash input token price get in 2026?
KalshiHow low will the Claude Opus 4.8 output token price get in 2026?
KalshiRegras
This market resolves each option as NO if the date passes and Kenshin9000 (or anyone) has not defeated stockfish with an LLM-based chess engine.
- All remaining options resolve YES once an LLM-based engine defeats stockfish (or top engine).
- My resolution criteria are more strict than Mira’s:
- The LLM engine must have higher ELO than the latest stockfish (or whatever the top engine is at resolution time) at blitz timings with 99.9% confidence and be reproduced by 3+ people.
- The LLM engine must not use another chess engine at runtime.
- For the purposes of this market, Large Language Models are 100M+ parameter general-purpose generative text models.
