Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualBy Jan 1, 2028 41.9%Líder entre 14 opções
Previsores
24
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado8/12/25, 19:05 UTC8/12/28, 18:54 UTC
Tendências
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This market aims to predict when Google will add ads to its primary user-facing (i.e. not dev-only or api-based) AI offering (currently being Gemini).
- These ads may take many forms, such as regular AdWords/AdSense ads that correlate to the topic(s) discussed, “sponsored responses” (á la Rufus on Amazon), etc. This market will not resolve to yes if ads are only seen by a handful of users (e.g. a/b testing), but will resolve to yes even if ads are only seen by a particular segment (of non-negligible size), such as non-paying users, users from certain countries, etc. Note: If Google introduces a separate standalone AI offering (i.e. not just in-search AI snippets) that significantly supersedes Gemini (e.g. how Gemini replaced Bard) before this market is resolved, this market may be updated to track that offering instead.
- Update 2026-07-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Adding AI to ads does not count as resolution criteria.
- The market requires ads to be added to Gemini (the AI product), not AI features being added to existing ad formats.