Quais são as probabilidades atuais de By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents??

A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 90.4% em 1 de novembro de 2026.

By 2030, will LLMs have a bigger impact on the economy than GLP-1 receptor agents?

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibrado

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Sim 90.4%

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Atualizado há 8 minutos

3/10/23, 12:05 UTC2/01/30, 04:59 UTC

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Derek Thompson asks the question here: https://twitter.com/DKThomp/status/1708875151373172856.

Responses incluude multiple predictions that the answer will be no.
So, market, obviously.
Resolves to YES if LLMs have a bigger economic impact on the economy by 2030 than GLP-1 receptors, NO otherwise.
If the answer to this question is non-obvious even in 2030 after I examine the economic data, I will ask an economist or similar expert.
If the answer is obvious in advance - defined as persistant weeks-long market price of <5% or >95% with little activity, where I also see no plausible way for the answer to still change, I will resolve this market early.