By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)

Perguntas frequentes

Quais são as probabilidades atuais de By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2)?

A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 88.9% em 26 de outubro de 2026.

Quando By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) é resolvido?

By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2030.

Como By 2029, will any AI be able to read a novel and reliably answer questions about it? (Gary Marcus benchmark #2) é liquidado?

A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: The second question from this post: https://garymarcus.substack.com/p/dear-elon-musk-here-are-five-things

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POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO by which date?

• December 31,+10.0pt94%
• December 15,+10.5pt93%
• November 30,+31.0pt89%

+15 mais resultados

Volume total

€ 5,2 mi

Volume 24h

€ 313,4 mil

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Feb 1, 2027+8.0pt95.5%
• Before Apr 1, 2027+3.0pt95.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027+5.0pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+0.5pt29.8%
• $2.0–$2.25T+2.5pt21.1%
• $1.5–$1.75T-3.0pt16.4%

+7 mais resultados

KALSHI

What will JD Vance say during his rally in Kansas?

• America First+58.0pt99.5%
• Working Class / Middle Class+40.0pt99.5%
• Oil / Gas / Gasoline+61.0pt

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+3.1pt58.4%
• Gemini+1.5pt30.5%
• ChatGPT-0.5pt

POLYMARKET

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

• ↑$1.5T+9.7pt96%
• ↑$1.75T+3.5pt82%
• ↑$2.0T+8.0pt67%

+11 mais resultados

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