Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election?
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Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado2/02/26, 19:33 UTC4/10/26, 23:59 UTC
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Each answer resolves YES or NO independently.
- For each polling organization, consider their last publicly released national presidential voting-intention poll registered in TSE before election day (exclude exit polls / “boca de urna”).
- Let the top-2 candidates be the two candidates with the highest official 1st-round valid-vote share in the results published by Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE).
- A pollster’s answer resolves YES if both top-2 candidates’ poll estimates are within the poll’s stated margin of error (in percentage points) of the official result:
- For each of the two candidates: |poll_estimate − official_result| ≤ margin_of_error
- If either candidate is outside the margin → NO
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election??
- A Manifold Markets cota Datafolha em 35% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election? é resolvido?
- Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election? deverá ser resolvido em 4 de outubro de 2026.
- Como Brazil 2026 Election: which pollsters stay within the margin for the top-2 in the 1st-round presidential election? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Each answer resolves YES or NO independently.