Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 84.6%
Previsores
111
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado18/12/23, 08:54 UTC2/01/35, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Before 2035, will there exist any AI that can perform arbitrary tasks in Minecraft?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a commercially available humanoid android that can perform basic household tasks by 2035?
Manifold MarketsBy 2028, AI can perform as well as the best human entrants in the Putnam competition.
Manifold MarketsDoes there exist a 3x3 magic square of square numbers?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRegras
The AI is provided with a clear description of a task that a normal smart human could perform, in English.
- For example, "defeat the ender dragon using only wooden swords as your weapons", "build a creeper farm out of TNT", "create an 8-bit addition machine with redstone", "locate the nearest witch hut to coordinates [1024, 1024]", "fill that chest with eggs in less than 24 hours", etc. It must be capable of performing the task with similar efficiency and outcomes to a competent and knowledgeable human, in a large multiplayer server.
- (If necessary, I'll find some humans for it to compete with and compare its success against.
- The other people in the server must start unaware of who is an AI vs. a human competitor.
- They must be normal Minecraft players, not people there to specifically help or hinder the AI.)
