Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 70.1%
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14
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 13 minutos
23/02/23, 17:57 UTC1/01/28, 17:57 UTC
Tendências
Regras
*Resolution conditions (all must apply):
- An AI of the form P(action|context) rather than e.g. E[value|context, action] must be a part of a major AI system.
- For instance language models such as ChatGPT or Sydney would currently count for this.
- The aftermath of its chosen actions must at least sometimes be recorded, and the recordings must be used to estimate what could have usefully been done differently.
- RLHF finetuning as it is done today does not count because it solely involves looking at the actions, but e.g. I bet the Sydney team at Bing probably had internal discussions about this incident and those internal discussions would count.
- This must be continually used to update P(action|context) to improve itself.
