Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%?
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Desatualizado23/11/25, 22:48 UTC31/12/26, 23:59 UTC
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Resolves according to this leaderboard: https://artificialanalysis.ai/?omniscience=omniscience-hallucination-rate.
- The metric we are looking it as percentage of non-correct answers that are hallucinations.
- To count, the model must be somewhere close to frontier, defined by being a release by a major lab that is larger than 7b parameters and competitive for its size class.
- No tool use allowed.
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 80% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%? é resolvido?
- Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.
- Como Before 2027, will a frontier AI model achieve an AA-Omniscience hallucination rate below 5%? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves according to this leaderboard: https://artificialanalysis.ai/?omniscience=omniscience-hallucination-rate.