Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 54.9%
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8
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binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 55 minutos
Atrasado7/05/25, 17:01 UTC31/12/27, 17:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Frontier AI model hits 50%+ on METR Rogue Replication/RepliBench by '27?
Manifold MarketsAny frontier AI company states AI fully managed >$1M training run by '27?
Manifold MarketsAny American frontier AI lab (e.g. OpenAI, Anthropic) nationalized by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRegras
AWS and Microsoft have both provided lots of data center capacity for AI products and research, but unlike Meta and Google, they do not appear to have their own models that are competitive with the state of the art and available for use by the public.
- Will this change?
Mercados abertos
TechKALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $76,750 or above99%
- $76,500 or above99%
- $76,250 or above99%
+77 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,3 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 1,3 mi
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- $78,400 or above99%
- $78,300 or above99%
- $78,200 or above99%
+97 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,1 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 802,6 mil
KALSHIBTC 15 min · $78,547.84 target
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume total
- € 736,5 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 585,6 mil
KALSHIBTC price on Sep 11, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- $72,500 or above+2.0pt99%
- $72,000 or above+3.0pt99%
- $69,500 or above+1.0pt98%
+47 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 4 - September 11, 2026?
- 180-199+10.0pt31.4%
- 200-219+8.0pt22.9%
- 160-179-4.0pt19.1%
+23 mais resultados
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Where will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Elon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- Bitcoin price at the end of 2026
- Nasdaq-100 price on Sep 8, 2026 at 4pm EDT?
- When will Apple release the iPhone 18?
- Highest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- Which company has the best AI model end of September?
- Best AI at the end of 2026?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
- ETH price on Sep 8, 2026 at 2pm EDT?
- When will Apple Inc. release the iPhone 18 Pro?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 55% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model? é resolvido?
- AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2027.
- Como AWS or Microsoft release own frontier AI model? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: AWS and Microsoft have both provided lots of data center capacity for AI products and research, but unlike Meta and Google, they do not appear to have their own models that are competitive with the state of the art and available for use by the public.