Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoAviso de qualidade dos dadosDados da fonte degradados
Dados de 25 de out. de 2026, 09:50 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Previsão da comunidade atualSim 71.2%
Previsores
8
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado22/10/25, 13:43 UTC31/12/28, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
Must be a state of the art model (probably in the top 8), used by millions of people, not just a research project.
- The guiding principle is that the market will resolve to YES if humans are able to follow the thinking process the AI is using.
- This would likely include cases where:
- The AI's thinking is a mixture of modalities (e.g., image, video, and text), as long as they're comprehensible to humans.
- This would not include cases where the AI mostly thinks in "neuralese" latent space vectors, recurrent activations, incomprehensible image/video streams, or the model thinks in text but the text switches languages, uses whitespace meaningfully &c.
- If in doubt I'll make the call.
