Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Sim 62.7%
Previsores
51
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 10 horas
Desatualizado29/05/24, 00:00 UTC1/01/31, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will a significant AI generated meme occur before 2031?
Manifold MarketsWhich companies will release a Fully AI-generated multi-episode scripted series before 2027?
KalshiWill an AI-generated song reach #1 on the Billboard Hot 100 before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWhat year will the first fully AI generated video game reach 10 million players? 🤖🎮👾🕹️
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegras
This is an attempt to forecast a realistic scenario where AI would be actually doing good (or at least interesting) philosophy by the end of 2030.
- Due to this aim, it is very specific.
- Gaston Bachelard was a French philosopher active in the first half of the 20th century.
- For the purposes of this market what matters is that he wrote five books on the psychoanalysis of the elements, i.e. fire, water, earth and air.
- Earth got two books for some reason.
- These books are a mix between a relatively detailed work of scholarship and psychoanalytical interpretation.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 135,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 102,7 mil
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,1 mi
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 325 mil
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 mais resultados
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 63% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)? é resolvido?
- AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2031.
- Como AI generated philosophy book worth reading by the end of 2030 (detailed scenario)? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This is an attempt to forecast a realistic scenario where AI would be actually doing good (or at least interesting) philosophy by the end of 2030.