Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 57.8%
Previsores
14
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 18 horas
Desatualizado30/07/25, 23:27 UTC4/01/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Regras
Any time between when they win their primary or are otherwise formally confirmed as their party's candidate, and when they take office.
- Arrest required; handcuffs, perp walk, and mug shot optional.
- Update 2025-07-30 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified what constitutes an 'arrest' for this market:
- An arrest does not require handcuffs, a perp walk, or a mug shot.
- An arrest confirmed via legal proceedings but without these public elements (e.g., Caroline Ellison's arrest) will count.
- Being handcuffed and taken away in a cop car is considered sufficient to count as an arrest.
Mercados abertos
Crime & Justice
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volume total
- € 9,8 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 16,5 mil
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt19%
- 2026+0.2pt5%
- Volume total
- € 507,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 7,7 mil
KALSHIWho will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Anthony Fauci-2.0pt35%
- John Brennan+1.0pt34%
- Ilhan Omar+3.0pt18%
+38 mais resultados
POLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No70.3%
- Yes29.7%
- Volume total
- € 358 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 5,1 mil
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-3.5pt8%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
KALSHIWho will be arrested in 2026?
- John Brennan+2.0pt26%
- Letitia James+8.9pt15%
- Anthony Fauci+1.0pt14%
+21 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Maduro Prison Time?
- Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
- Who will be arrested before 2027?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?
- Lindsay Clancy sentenced to prison time in 2026?
- Lindsay Clancy convicted of manslaughter in 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de 2026 Congressional candidate arrested??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 58% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando 2026 Congressional candidate arrested? é resolvido?
- 2026 Congressional candidate arrested? deverá ser resolvido em 4 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como 2026 Congressional candidate arrested? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Any time between when they win their primary or are otherwise formally confirmed as their party's candidate, and when they take office.