Will Dario Amodei hold super-voting Anthropic shares at IPO?
RegulamentaçãoOne-OffIAEventos corporativosPolíticaEleição1a
KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatórioDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Sim 65%
Sim 65%Qualidade do mercado
62 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
2,3 mil €
Contratos em aberto
2,3 mil €
Contratos em aberto: médioCompra / Venda
63.0% / 67.0%
Spread
4.0 pt
Spread moderadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 minutos
30/09/26, 02:00 UTC1/01/28, 15:00 UTC
Tendências
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
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Manifold MarketsRegras
A regra exata deste resultado não está disponível.
Liquida via:The Washington Postthe New York TimesMS NowABCNBCBBCCNBCThe Wall Street JournalCBSFox Newsthe Associated PressCNNReutersBloomberg NewsSEC filings
- How this is resolved SEC filings take priority, followed by the other sources listed in the full rules. Ownership and votes per share are measured at the initial closing of Anthropic's IPO. Payout Criteria Dario Amodei holds shares with more votes per share than those sold to the public. Beneficial ownership, including through trusts or other entities, counts. Votes are compared on a common-share-equivalent basis, including convertible shares and Up-C structures. Any qualifying holding counts, regardless of size. Doesn't count for payout Announcements, unexercised options, unsettled RSUs, or shares acquired only after that closing. Veto or special board-election rights without higher votes per share. Direct listings, SPAC transactions, or offerings outside SEC registration. If a share is held through an entity and voted by majority decision of three or more individuals, none of whom can individually direct or block that vote, person does not "hold" that share by being one of those individuals. This does not apply if person can individually direct or block the vote, or if the share is reported as beneficially owned by person. It also does not apply if person can individually direct or block the share's disposition, or if the share is reported as beneficially owned by person in any Form 3, Form 4, Schedule 13D, or Schedule 13G. Example that would NOT resolve the market to Yes: Assuming person is Individual A, a hypothetical Anthropic co-founder: a Class F share carrying 50.1% of voting power is held by an LLC whose vote is directed by majority of seven co-founders, including Individual A. The final prospectus reports the share as held by the LLC, not Individual A. The Contract resolves No, because Individual A cannot direct or block the vote alone Expiration and no IPO Latest expiration: 10:00 AM ET on the earlier of 14 days after IPO shares first trade or one year after issuance. The market may close early if the payout criterion is met. Resolves No if no qualifying IPO closes by expiration, or no source reports a qualifying holding by then. Please see the full rules for more details. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Anthropic. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.
Regras de cada resultado
- Yes
- A regra exata deste resultado não está disponível.
- No
- A regra exata deste resultado não está disponível.