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  1. Mercados de Previsão
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  3. Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?
Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?

Will a Russian sanctions bill become law?

One-OffPolíticaGeopolíticaRussia / Ukraine6m
KalshiKalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
Sim
Sim 16%
Qualidade do mercado

24 / 100

Baixa qualidade
Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidez

13,3 €

Baixa liquidez
Compra / Venda

13.0% / 16.0%

Spread

23.1%

Spread amplo
Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 2 minutos

26/12/25, 15:001/01/27, 15:00

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Yes16%

Regras

If a bill sanctioning Russia has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The legislation must establish new material restrictive measures explicitly targeting the Russian Federation by mandating or authorizing: (i) new primary sanctions against Russia or key economic sectors; (ii) new secondary sanctions on foreign third parties facilitating Russian trade or evasion; (iii) the seizure and transfer of blocked or immobilized Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine; and/or (iv) the designation of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism that triggers automatic sanctions.
  • Routine re-authorizations or technical modifications of existing programs—such as those sometimes included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) or appropriations bills—are excluded.
  • For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.

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Regras

If a bill sanctioning Russia has become law after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The legislation must establish new material restrictive measures explicitly targeting the Russian Federation by mandating or authorizing: (i) new primary sanctions against Russia or key economic sectors; (ii) new secondary sanctions on foreign third parties facilitating Russian trade or evasion; (iii) the seizure and transfer of blocked or immobilized Russian sovereign assets to support Ukraine; and/or (iv) the designation of Russia as a state sponsor of terrorism that triggers automatic sanctions.
  • Routine re-authorizations or technical modifications of existing programs—such as those sometimes included in the National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) or appropriations bills—are excluded.
  • For "become law" markets, the bill must be signed by the President or become law through veto override.