Who will leave Trump's Cabinet first: Rubio or Hegseth?
1.0 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffPolítica dos EUAEleição2a
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Dados de 14 de nov. de 2026, 05:27 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Ponto médio do livro selecionado
Pete Hegseth · —
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Preço registado
Pete Hegseth 62.5%Líder entre 3 opções
Pete Hegseth 62.5%Qualidade do mercado
55 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
3,7 €
Contratos em aberto
3,3 mil US$
Contratos em aberto: médioCompra / Venda
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Pete HegsethSpread
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 22 minutos
9/11/26, 21:00 UTC20/01/29, 04:59 UTC
O gráfico e as variações mostram probabilidades históricas guardadas, não o livro selecionado em tempo real.
Tendências
Linha selecionada: ponto médio do livro. Outras linhas: referências guardadas, possivelmente normalizadas; as variações de 24h usam o histórico guardado.
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Profundidade de mercado · Pete Hegseth
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Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsWho leaves the Trump administration first: Rubio or Hegseth?
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Manifold MarketsRegras
If Pete Hegseth is the first of the two officials named in this event to leave, or announce he will leave, his position as Secretary of Defense after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
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- This market resolves based on when the departure is publicly announced or officially communicated, regardless of the effective date. The first official is the one whose announcement or departure comes first after Issuance. If a single announcement covers both named officials, the market will resolve to 1 / N where N is the number of named officials covered by that announcement. Leaving means ceasing to be Secretary of State, for Marco Rubio, or Secretary of Defense, for Pete Hegseth, by resignation, firing, removal or a move to another post; a change in the name of the office is not leaving. Leaving only another role, such as National Security Advisor, a temporary leave or recusal, being considered for another position, and impeachment without removal do NOT count. A departure that takes effect at the end of the current presidential term on Jan 20, 2029 does NOT count, including a statement that he will not serve in the next administration. No officials will be added to this event. None resolves to Yes if neither named official leaves or announces he will leave his position before Jan 20, 2029. Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
Regras de cada resultado
- Pete Hegseth
- If Pete Hegseth is the first of the two officials named in this event to leave, or announce he will leave, his position as Secretary of Defense after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Marco Rubio
- If Marco Rubio is the first of the two officials named in this event to leave, or announce he will leave, his position as Secretary of State after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- None
- If neither of the two officials named in this event leaves, or announces he will leave, his position after Issuance and before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.