KalshiFechadoVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoEste mercado está fechado e aguardando uma resolução confirmada.
Dados de resolução não verificados
Este resultado é inferido ou não é apoiado por evidência de liquidação de nível provedor.
Probabilidade implícita atual
Yes, 3-6% 4%-5.3ptLíder entre 8 opções
Qualidade do mercado
≤49 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
56 mil €
Liquidez
25,4 mil €
Alta liquidezSpread
0.2 pt
Spread apertadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 108 dias
Desatualizado16/03/26, 21:0021/04/27, 14:00
Tendências
4%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
0%
0%
Regras
If the margin of victory for Yes in the 2026 Virginia redistricting amendment falls at least 15%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by Yes minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Yes if Yes wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if Yes loses.
- For raw votes: the total votes received by Yes minus the total votes received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind Yes if Yes wins, or the candidate/party/option that finishes first if Yes loses.
- For electoral votes: the electoral votes received by Yes minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the second-most electoral votes if Yes wins, or the electoral votes received by Yes minus the electoral votes received by the candidate/party/option with the most electoral votes if Yes does not.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
