KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Republicans, 14+ pts 79%+31.0ptLíder entre 9 opções
Qualidade do mercado
40 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
3 mil €
Liquidez
3,7 mil €
Liquidez médiaDados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 minutos
5/05/26, 20:243/11/27, 15:00
Tendências
0%
Regras
If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Missouri's 4th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.
- The margin of victory shall be calculated as follows based on the margin type.
- For percentage points: the vote percentage received by the Republican Party minus the vote percentage received by the candidate/party/option that finishes immediately behind the Republican Party if the Republican Party wins, or the candidate/party that finishes first if the Republican Party loses.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound.
- No rounding shall be applied to the calculated margin.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
Mercados abertos
Politics
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance-3.0pt50%
- Marco Rubio17%
- Ron DeSantis3%
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POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-1.6pt24%
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POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez20%
- Jon Ossoff16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
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- € 1,1 bi
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt53.4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+2.9pt42.7%
- Renan Santos-0.6pt1.9%
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POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen-0.5pt36.8%
- Édouard Philippe29.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.7%
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- Volume total
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff16.8%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez15.8%
- Gavin Newsom12.9%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 181 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 390,2 mil
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Missouri's 4th District margin of victory?
- A Kalshi cota Republicans, 14+ pts em 79% em 4 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Missouri's 4th District margin of victory é resolvido?
- Missouri's 4th District margin of victory deverá ser resolvido em 3 de novembro de 2027.
- Como Missouri's 4th District margin of victory é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Missouri's 4th District by 5 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.