KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Não 89%
Qualidade do mercado
≤49 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
—
Liquidez
6 mil €
Liquidez médiaCompra / Venda
8.8% / 10.0%
Spread
1.2 pt
Spread apertadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 minutos
11/02/26, 17:00 UTC3/11/26, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will Mitch McConnell outlive Neal Dunn?
Manifold MarketsWill Thomas Massie leave Congress before his term ends?
Manifold MarketsWho controls Congress after the 2026 Midterms?
Manifold MarketsHow many independents will be elected to Congress in the midterms?
KalshiPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketBrazil Presidential Election
PolymarketRegras
If Neal Dunn leaves the House before November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:Bloomberg NewsCNNFox NewsMSNBCNeal DunnPoliticoReutersthe Associated Pressthe body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is heldthe New York TimesThe Wall Street JournalThe Washington Post
- Neal Dunn must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
- If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
- Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
- If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.
- For "leave," cessation of holding the role qualifies, including resignation, retirement, removal, expulsion, expiration of term without renewal, recall, or other means by which the individual no longer occupies the role—this includes both voluntary and involuntary early departure AND the natural expiration of a term.
Mercados abertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 605,6 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 691,8 mil
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 mais resultados
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 603,1 mi
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 183,6 mi
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms??
- A Kalshi cota No em 89% em 9 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms? é resolvido?
- Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms? deverá ser resolvido em 3 de novembro de 2026.
- Como Will Neal Dunn leave Congress before the midterms? é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If Neal Dunn leaves the House before November 3, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.