Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)

One-OffPolítica US Politics Eleição2a

KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosCalibração aproximada

Probabilidade implícita atual

Rahm Emanuel 77%

Líder entre 33 opções

Qualidade do mercado

42 / 100

Baixa qualidade

Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidez

4,4 mil €

Liquidez média

Compra / Venda

20.0% / 26.0%

Spread

6.0 pt

Spread amplo

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 12 minutos

21/05/26, 21:001/11/28, 3:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro

Resultado escolhido

Gavin Newsom23%

Aposta (USDT)

Regras

If Gavin Newsom is the first individual in this list to publicly declare their candidacy for 2028 United States presidential election after Issuance and before Nov 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

This list is fixed and no new strikes will be added.
A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office.
The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance.
Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify.
The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.

Tendência de volume

$79

2 de jul.17d de dados23 de jul.

Mercados Relacionados

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?

95,6 €

Gavin Newsom: 24%

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Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

251,7 mil €

Haley Stevens: 26%

KALSHI

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

243,7 mil €

Gavin Newsom: 19%

POLYMARKET

Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent

236,4 mil €

At least 1%: 96%

KALSHI

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

164,6 mil €

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%

POLYMARKET

Ativos nestes tópicos

BitcoinBTC$63,936.88-1.49%

EthereumETH$1,918.57-1.40%

SolanaSOL$74.06-2.42%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0707-1.84%

XRPXRP$1.07-2.27%

BNBBNB$571.38-0.52%

Notícias Relacionadas

Polymarket odds swing: Eizenkot hits 51% as Israel campaign kicks offBlockchain.News

Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News

White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk

Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News

White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph

Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.85% as Epstein files critique hits tapeBlockchain.News

Regras

This list is fixed and no new strikes will be added.
A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office.
The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance.
Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify.
The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run? (More strikes)

One-OffPolítica US Politics Eleição2a

KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosCalibração aproximada

Probabilidade implícita atual

Rahm Emanuel 77%

Líder entre 33 opções

Qualidade do mercado

42 / 100

Baixa qualidade

Volume 24h

0 €

Liquidez

4,4 mil €

Liquidez média

Compra / Venda

20.0% / 26.0%

Spread

6.0 pt

Spread amplo

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 12 minutos

21/05/26, 21:001/11/28, 3:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Apenas fundos simulados, sem dinheiro realIsto não é aconselhamento financeiro

Resultado escolhido

Gavin Newsom23%

Aposta (USDT)

Regras

This list is fixed and no new strikes will be added.
A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office.
The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance.
Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify.
The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.

Tendência de volume

$79

2 de jul.17d de dados23 de jul.

Mercados Relacionados

Who will be the first Democrat listed to announce a presidential run?

95,6 €

Gavin Newsom: 24%

KALSHI

Presidential Election Winner 2028

309,3 mil €

JD Vance: 20%

POLYMARKET

Michigan Democratic Senate nominee?

251,7 mil €

Haley Stevens: 26%

KALSHI

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

243,7 mil €

Gavin Newsom: 19%

POLYMARKET

Florida Republican Governor primary: James Fishback vote percent

236,4 mil €

At least 1%: 96%

KALSHI

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

164,6 mil €

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.: 49%

POLYMARKET

Ativos nestes tópicos

BitcoinBTC$63,936.88-1.49%

EthereumETH$1,918.57-1.40%

SolanaSOL$74.06-2.42%

DogecoinDOGE$0.0707-1.84%

XRPXRP$1.07-2.27%

BNBBNB$571.38-0.52%

Notícias Relacionadas

Polymarket odds swing: Eizenkot hits 51% as Israel campaign kicks offBlockchain.News

Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News

White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk

Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News

White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph

Polymarket odds show Vance at 19.85% as Epstein files critique hits tapeBlockchain.News

Regras

This list is fixed and no new strikes will be added.
A declaration of candidacy requires both filing the appropriate candidacy form (Form 2 with FEC for federal elections or equivalent state/local form) AND a clear, unambiguous public statement explicitly declaring intention to seek the office.
The declaration must be made directly by the person or their officially authorized representatives, explicitly reference the specific office, be publicly accessible through Source Agencies, and occur after market issuance.
Formation of exploratory committees, third-party statements, media speculation, "considering" statements, private communications, or fundraising without explicit declaration do not qualify.
The person must be legally eligible to hold the office under applicable constitutional and statutory requirements.