KalshiFechadoVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: Reform UK, ≥15% (98%)
Resolvido: 14 de ago. de 2026, 14:28
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.
Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 14 de ago. de 2026, 13:40 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Probabilidade implícita atual
Reform UK, ≥20% 99%+4.0ptLíder entre 16 opções
Qualidade do mercado
38 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
48,6 mil €
Liquidez
100,5 mil €
Alta liquidezDados do mercado
Atualizado há 18 dias
Desatualizado7/07/26, 23:008/07/27, 14:00
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
Reform UK, ≥50%52%
Reform UK, ≥45%5%
Reform UK, ≥60%27%
Reform UK, ≥65%15%
Reform UK, ≥70%6%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
99%
98%
6%
5%
3%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
Regras
If the margin of victory for Reform UK in the 2026 Clacton by-election falls within 5% to 100%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:Tendring District Council
- The margin of victory is the vote share received by Reform UK minus the vote share received by the candidate that finishes immediately behind Reform UK if Reform UK wins, or the candidate that finishes first if Reform UK loses.
- If Reform UK wins, the margin will be positive; if Reform UK loses, the margin will be negative; if Reform UK ties for first place, the margin shall be 0.
- Each margin range is inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, and no rounding shall be applied.
- For example, for consecutive ranges of 5-6% and 6-7%, a margin of 5.99999% resolves within the 5-6% range, while a margin of exactly 6% resolves within the 6-7% range.
- If Reform UK runs under multiple parties or is listed multiple times, votes attributable to the same underlying candidate will be summed.
