Brazil presidential runoff: who will win the vote abroad?
14.0 pts (24h)PolíticaOne-OffEleiçãoAmérica Latina1a
KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatórioDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 52.6%-14.0ptAjustado pela margem: as cotações brutas somavam mais de 100% e foram normalizadas.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 52.6%-14.0ptQualidade do mercado
68 / 100
Qualidade médiaVolume 24h
2 mil €
Contratos em aberto
2,6 mil €
Contratos em aberto: médioCompra / Venda
50.0% / 51.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Spread apertadoDados do mercado
Atualizado há 14 minutos
5/10/26, 21:00 UTC25/10/27, 14:00 UTC
Tendências
Condições da plataforma
Fonte: Kalshi
Estas condições são informativas; as operações simuladas da CoinRithm seguem regras próprias.
- Encerramento antecipado:
- Sim
- Prazo de liquidação:
- 30m (informativo)
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Brazil presidential runoff: margin of victory
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: which states will Flávio Bolsonaro win?
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: Flávio Bolsonaro vote percent
KalshiBrazil presidential runoff: Lula vote percent
Kalshi🇧🇷 Will Brazil’s 2026 presidential runoff be decided by less than 3 percentage points?
Manifold MarketsBrazil Presidential Election Second Round: 1st Place Abroad
PolymarketRegras
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in 1st place in the Exterior zone (Brazilian voters abroad) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Liquida via:Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE)
- Ranking is determined by the specified counting method: Rank is based on runoff vote totals only In case of exact ties, markets resolve proportionally (1/number of tied entities). Write-in candidates achieving the specified rank resolve all named candidate markets to NO unless a specific "Write-in" or "Other" option exists. Candidates who withdraw or are disqualified after the filing deadline but remain on the ballot are ranked based on votes received. If the election is cancelled or postponed beyond expiration, all markets resolve to NO. The Exterior zone is the Tribunal Superior Eleitoral (TSE) results unit for votes cast by Brazilian voters outside Brazil; ranking uses its runoff totals, regardless of the national result.
Regras de cada resultado
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
- If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva finishes in 1st place in the Exterior zone (Brazilian voters abroad) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Flávio Bolsonaro
- If Flávio Bolsonaro finishes in 1st place in the Exterior zone (Brazilian voters abroad) in the 2026 Brazilian presidential runoff according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.