KalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxaDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoProbabilidade implícita atual
Before Jan 1, 2028 50.9%Líder entre 3 opçõesAjustado pela margem: as cotações brutas somavam mais de 100% e foram normalizadas.
Qualidade do mercado
36 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
2 mil €
Liquidez
2 mil €
Baixa liquidezSpread
10.0 pt
Spread amploDados do mercado
Atualizado há 5 minutos
17/09/26, 00:00 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027?
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Manifold MarketsRegras
If federal legislation requiring independent AI safety evaluations or audits has become law after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
- A qualifying federal law must require a safety evaluation or audit of AI models, systems, or safety practices by an evaluator independent of the entity being reviewed.
- Government evaluators and independent outside organizations qualify.
- The review must substantively assess safety risks, testing, safeguards, or risk management; disclosure paperwork or self-attestation alone does not qualify.
- The law may cover a defined class of models or entities and may delegate technical standards to an agency.
- Self-assessments, voluntary programs, studies, and reviews limited to privacy, fairness, or transparency without a safety component do not qualify.
Mercados abertos
AIKALSHIAnthropic market share this week
- Above 2.05%+3.0pt99%
- Above 2.25%+3.0pt97%
- Above 2.75%+34.0pt95%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 126,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 104,7 mil
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+2.6pt69.9%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt14.6%
- Gemini+0.6pt7.8%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 9,8 mi
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of October?
- Alibaba-5.5pt69%
- Moonshot-4.0pt14%
- Z.ai+1.3pt6%
+8 mais resultados
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,86%
- December 15,83%
- November 30,78%
+7 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 2,9 mi
- Volume 24h
KALSHITencent market share this week
- Above 2.7%+9.0pt99%
- Above 4.5%+26.0pt56%
- Above 5.6%+8.0pt14%
+6 mais resultados
- Volume total
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+1.0pt87.3%
- Moonshot+0.8pt8.8%
- Z.ai-0.8pt2%
+8 mais resultados
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- OpenAI market share this week
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Which Millennium Prize Problem will AI solve next?
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- How many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law??
- A Kalshi cota Before Jan 1, 2028 em 51% em 18 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law? é resolvido?
- When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2027.
- Como When will independent AI safety audits become U.S. law? é liquidado?
- A Kalshi liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: If federal legislation requiring independent AI safety evaluations or audits has become law after Issuance and the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.