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This event predicts whether a new, dedicated United Nations agency focused primarily on artificial intelligence will be formally created between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be an official UN instrument creating or recognizing such an entity (e.g., a UN General Assembly resolution, a Security Council resolution, or a formal act of the UN Secretariat) that establishes a specialized intergovernmental body with a primary mandate related to global AI governance/oversight.
- If, within this period, the UN formally establishes or officially recognizes a specialized UN body whose primary mandate is AI governance/oversight worldwide, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- If the relevant UN documentation is delayed or ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will use consistent reporting from major, editorially independent news organizations (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press) together with official UN communications.
- Resolution will reflect the substantive creation/recognition of the AI-focused UN body, not preliminary proposals, debates, or informal working groups; however, if the UN creates an explicitly temporary or preparatory body that is officially designated as the vehicle for establishing such an agency, Futuur will use its judgment to apply the market’s intent.
