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Gegevens van 1 sep 2026, 21:00 UTC · beleid pm-quality-3
Huidige impliciete kans
October 31 45%+4.0pt
Marktkwaliteit
39 / 100
Lage kwaliteit24u volume
€ 18,2K
Liquiditeit
€ 21,7K
Hoge liquiditeitBied / Laat
- / 0.1%
Reacties
0
7d wijziging
-8.0 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd24 jul 26, 19:121 nov 26, 3:59
Trends
0%
Regels
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.450545° N, 37.181493° E in Novyi Donbas, Donetsk Oblast, by the specified date 11:59 PM ET.
- The intersection will be considered captured if any part of the intersection is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- If the area is not shaded red by the specified date, the market will resolve to “No”.
- For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Russian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
- If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date.
- Any continuous shading which reflects either “Assessed Russian Control”, “Assessed Russian Advance In Ukraine”, or “Assessed Russian Gains in the Past 24 Hours” will qualify. “Assessed Russian Infiltration Areas in Ukraine” will not qualify.