Will the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?
FedObligaties en staatsleningenOne-OffPolitiekMacro en economieAmerikaanse politiek4jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 94.2%
Voorspellers
6
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd11 mei 26, 14:28 UTC31 dec 30, 00:00 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Are Trump’s Tariffs part of a strategy to restructure the US Debt, Dollar, Trade & Global Financial System? 🇺🇸🏛️🤑
Manifold MarketsTechnical default on US Treasury debt by 1/20/2029
Manifold Markets[Credit Default Swap] How many of these markets will resolve to YES?
Manifold MarketsUS announces another yen intervention by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States)
Manifold MarketsU.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?
Manifold MarketsRegels
This market resolves YES if the US federal government has, on or after January 1, 2026 and on or before December 31, 2030, unilaterally restructured previously-issued outstanding marketable US Treasury notes, bonds, or TIPS without bondholder consent.
- YES if any of the following has been announced and taken effect:
- Statutory reduction of stated coupon rate on outstanding Treasury debt
- Compelled extension of stated maturity on outstanding Treasury debt
- Compelled swap of outstanding Treasuries for new instruments with materially altered cash flows (lower coupons, longer maturities, principal haircut), including a "Mar-a-Lago Accord"-style forced swap of foreign holdings
- Statutory cap on Treasury interest payments that materially reduces coupon receipts on outstanding debt
