Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026?
One-OffRegelgevingAIHealth & MedicinePolitiek3mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 91.7%
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25
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Bijgewerkt 15 uur geleden
Verouderd16 jun 26, 18:56 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, between June 16, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, the United States federal government enacts a new federal law (signed by the President or passed over veto) or a federal agency publishes a final, binding rule in the Federal Register that specifically regulates, mandates pre-release vetting/testing for, or establishes a licensing framework for "Mythos-class", "Mythos+", or equivalent frontier AI models (specifically those characterized by advanced autonomous cybersecurity, hacking, or biosecurity capabilities similar to or exceeding Anthropic's Claude Mythos 5).
- To qualify as "enacting regulation," the action must:
- Be a newly passed federal statute (act of Congress) or a finalized federal agency regulation published in the Federal Register.
- Establish mandatory requirements, licensing, or vetting specifically targeting these high-capability models (e.g., "Mythos-class" or "Mythos+" models).
- The following do NOT qualify for a YES resolution:
Open markten
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Totaal volume
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
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- November 30,85%
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- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%
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- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
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- Totaal volume
- € 1,4 mln.
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 92% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the US enact AI regulation for all Mythos+ models in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria