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Manifold MarketsRegels
If, between January 1, 2026 00:00:00 UTC and December 31, 2026 23:59:59 UTC, the United States federal government enacts a law or issues an executive order that introduces at least one new AI safety requirement on any private entity developing or deploying AI models — based on the model's general capability level (or its classification as a general-purpose model) — this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- An "AI safety requirement" is a requirement intended to prevent material harm from an AI system's general capabilities or misuse potential, such as mandated risk assessments, safety evaluations, red-teaming, incident reporting, deployment constraints, or access controls.
- The Primary Designated Source is the United States Code / Federal Register record of the enacted statute or executive order, accessible via congress.gov, federalregister.gov, and whitehouse.gov.
- Requirements about privacy, copyright, federal procurement, or those imposed based on a specific application, audience, or content category (rather than the model's general capability level) do not count.
- Proposed bills, executive orders that have been rescinded before the deadline, or court-stayed orders that are vacated before the deadline do not count toward Yes.