Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 73.3%
Voorspellers
19
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 uur geleden
Verouderd23 jun 26, 06:24 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Trump follow through on his power plant/bridge threats?
Manifold MarketsWill Taurus missiles hit the Kerch bridge before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by which date?
PolymarketWill a bridge across the Strait of Messina between mainland Italy and Sicily have started construction by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
KalshiWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
PolymarketRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the Crimean (Kerch Strait) Bridge sustains new, documented physical structural damage occurring between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
- "Physical structural damage" is defined as visible destruction, collapse, or severe degradation of the road or rail spans, supports, or pylons of the bridge (such as collapsed sections, craters in the roadway, or major structural fires on the rail spans).
- The damage must require physical repairs or result in a complete closure of at least one lane or track for at least 12 consecutive hours.
- To resolve to YES, the damage must be confirmed by at least two independent, reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, The Guardian, Associated Press) or verified by satellite imagery (e.g., Maxar, Planet Labs).
- Precautionary or temporary closures of the bridge due to air raid alerts, smoke screens, or nearby strikes (such as on ferry crossings, oil terminals, or air defenses in nearby Kerch or Krasnodar) that do not cause direct physical damage to the bridge structure itself will not suffice for a YES resolution.
Open markten
Russia / UkrainePOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+1.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)+0.4pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)+0.5pt3%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 335,1K
POLYMARKETRussia Parliamentary Election Winner
- United Russia (ER)+0.7pt100%
- Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)-0.2pt0%
- A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP)0%
+5 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETPutin out as President of Russia by which date?
- June 30, 202714%
- December7%
- September 30,-0.1pt1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 19,9 mln.
POLYMARKETKanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
- No-5.5pt75%
- Yes+5.5pt25%
- Totaal volume
- € 345,5K
- 24u volume
- € 45,3K
POLYMARKETBank of Russia decision in September?
- No Change+1.5pt69.3%
- Decrease27.7%
- Increase-0.1pt3%
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETRussia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?
- No+0.1pt99%
- Yes-0.1pt1%
- Totaal volume
- € 516,7K
- 24u volume
- € 43K
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
- NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
- Will Russia capture Orikhiv by which date?
- Which cities will Russia enter by December 31?
- Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
- Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?
- Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the Crimean bridge be damaged in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 73% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the Crimean bridge be damaged in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will the Crimean bridge be damaged in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the Crimean bridge be damaged in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution criteria