Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 73.3%
Voorspellers
19
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 43 minuten geleden
23 jun 26, 06:24 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Was Russian nuclear submarine K-186 Omsk seriously damaged or destroyed on or about August 26, 2026?
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Manifold MarketsYear of Elon Musk's next visit to Russia
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Manifold MarketsWill Russia destroy global technology infrastructure including AI before 2050?
Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the Crimean (Kerch Strait) Bridge sustains new, documented physical structural damage occurring between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC.
- "Physical structural damage" is defined as visible destruction, collapse, or severe degradation of the road or rail spans, supports, or pylons of the bridge (such as collapsed sections, craters in the roadway, or major structural fires on the rail spans).
- The damage must require physical repairs or result in a complete closure of at least one lane or track for at least 12 consecutive hours.
- To resolve to YES, the damage must be confirmed by at least two independent, reputable international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, The Guardian, Associated Press) or verified by satellite imagery (e.g., Maxar, Planet Labs).
- Precautionary or temporary closures of the bridge due to air raid alerts, smoke screens, or nearby strikes (such as on ferry crossings, oil terminals, or air defenses in nearby Kerch or Krasnodar) that do not cause direct physical damage to the bridge structure itself will not suffice for a YES resolution.