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Bijgewerkt 23 uur geleden
Verouderd1 apr 24, 00:04 UTC2 jan 00, 04:59 UTC
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🇺🇸 Will the Fed raise interest rates in September 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich central banks will raise interest rates in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Fed raise interest rates in 2027?
Manifold MarketsECB Interest Rates: September 2026
PolymarketECB Interest Rates: October 2026
PolymarketECB Interest Rates: September 2026
LimitlessRegels
Measured with the 10-yr real interest rate as calculated by the St-Louis Fed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y
- Baseline: Average of the 10-yr real interest rate.
- I will average the rate over the year preceding the release of Strong AI.
- I will then average the same rate, starting one year after the release of said strong AI.
- This resolves at T + 2 yr after the release of strong AI.
- Will extend indefinitely.
Open markten
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt53.9%
- Fed maintains rate-1.0pt43.3%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 35 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 1,7 mln.
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+1.0pt54%
- No change-2.0pt45%
- 50+ bps increase+0.3pt1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt42%
- Hike >25bps-2.0pt2.4%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.2pt93.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.8pt4%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.4pt2%
+10 extra uitkomsten
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts+0.6pt91.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.1pt7.9%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.2pt1%
+18 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66.7%
- 25 bps increase30.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.5pt2%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Jerome Powell departure as Fed Governor announced?
- Fed Decision in December?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates??
- Manifold Markets prijst Raise by >5% op 64% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates? afgewikkeld?
- Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2100 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will strong AI raise or lower real interest rates? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Measured with the 10-yr real interest rate as calculated by the St-Louis Fed: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/REAINTRATREARAT10Y