Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 97.6%
Voorspellers
107
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 minuten geleden
1 jan 26, 01:35 UTC2 jan 27, 02:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved before 2028?
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Manifold MarketsAI solves Millennium Prize Problem in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
KalshiRegels
Resolution Criteria
- The market resolves YES if at least one of the six remaining Millennium Prize Problems is solved in 2026.
- A problem is considered solved if:
- A complete proof is published in a peer-reviewed mathematics journal of worldwide repute, OR
- There is consensus among leading experts in the relevant field that the problem has been solved
- The proof must be published in a refereed mathematics publication of worldwide repute and achieve general acceptance in the mathematics community.
Open markten
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 301%
- April 300%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 57,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 86,7K
KALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 203076%
- Before 2029+38.1pt70%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 153,9K
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 2028+1.0pt13%
- Before 2027-0.3pt5%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 28,6 mln.
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+5.0pt75.5%
- 2-0.5pt21.6%
- 32%
+3 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,6 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 5,2K
KALSHIWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Yes-3.6pt77%
- No23%
- Totaal volume
- € 286,1K
- 24u volume
- € 3,5K
- When will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- How many large volcano eruptions (VEI ≥4) in 2026?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- When will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 98% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 2 januari 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolution Criteria