Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 84.9%
Voorspellers
16
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 51 minuten geleden
Vertraagd3 apr 24, 15:23 UTC1 jan 31, 04:59 UTC
Trends
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PolymarketRegels
This will have a subjective resolution, but the things I will be looking for are: Direct comparisons to 9/11 by major international news organizations,
- Featuring at least one major terrorist attack using a ship,
- And evidence of at least ~10% of the death or property damage directly inflicted by actual 9/11.
- [image]This market is inspired by the rising sense of vulnerability to international business represented by shipping logistics and related infrastructure.
- In particular, this market is focusing on the possibility of state or non-state terrorist actors using ships as improvised weapons in a method broadly similar to how planes were used on 9/11.
- A warship being used by a military to launch missiles would not count, even if it has blatantly civilian targets.
Open markten
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 470,8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 35,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 100,1K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 85% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2031 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will some kind of "9/11 but with ships" event happen by the end of 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This will have a subjective resolution, but the things I will be looking for are: Direct comparisons to 9/11 by major international news organizations,