Will Russia deploy troops into Iran by end 2026?
GeopolitiekOne-OffMidden-OostenRusland / Oekraïne2mnd
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 05:41 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 86.6%
Voorspellers
28
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 7 uur geleden
Verouderd7 mrt 26, 22:50 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the U.S. deploy 1000 ground troops in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will deploy troops to Ukraine in 2026?
FutuurWill America send troops to Iran?
Manifold MarketsWill Australia deploy troops to Venezuela in support of US forces before 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Germany formally exceed NATO's 2% GDP defense spending and deploy troops outside Europe by end of 2027?
Manifold MarketsSyrian troops enter Yemen by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Confirmed publicly and credibly, whether by Russia or another government
- Official Russian regulars ("under the flag of Russia"), not just troops of a not-Russian-state-official paramilitary group who happen to be Russian
- Intentionally deployed into Iranian territory, not skirmishing in and out from adjacent areas
- Combat roles (infantry, tanks, artillery, frontline drone teams, etc.), whether or not they are actually used in combat
- Humans that would be used in ground combat; naval forces in Iranian waters are not "troops in Iran" for the purposes of this market, nor are military aircraft stationed in Iran with their crews if they lack supporting Russian guard deployments
- May be special forces or similar that otherwise use irregular tactics while still being official troops; general purpose infantry don't exclusively qualify.