Will post-WWII international orders die before 2050?
One-OffGeopolitiekGezondheid en geneeskundeRusland / OekraïneChinaEuropaManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 70.4%
Voorspellers
3
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 44 minuten geleden
27 sep 26, 09:58 UTC31 dec 49, 11:00 UTC
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2050, at least two of the following four events occur, signaling the definitive collapse ("death") of the post-WWII international order:
- Collapse of the Postwar Security Alliance: The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) is formally dissolved, or the United States officially withdraws from the treaty.
- Dissolution of the Global Security Body: The United Nations (UN) is formally dissolved, its charter is formally declared null and void, or the UN Security Council permanently ceases to convene or function for a continuous period of at least 365 days.
- Collapse of the Bretton Woods Economic Framework: The International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank are both formally dissolved, or the United States officially withdraws from both institutions.
- Outbreak of Great Power War: A direct, officially declared or internationally recognized interstate military conflict occurs directly between the United States and either China or the Russian Federation, or a direct military conflict occurs between any three of the permanent five (P5) members of the UN Security Council (US, UK, France, Russia, China) simultaneously.