Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial?
Crime & JusticeOne-OffHealth & Medicine
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 60%
Voorspellers
102
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
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Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd31 mrt 23, 12:45 UTC1 jan 00, 05:00 UTC
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By when will the Covid lab leak market resolve?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the Covid lab leak market resolve?
Manifold MarketsWill the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?
Manifold MarketsNew COVID variant of concern before 2027?
PolymarketTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
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PolymarketRegels
Here is the market in question:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/IsaacKing/did-covid19-come-from-a-laboratory)I've tried to make it clear that I'm only going to resolve it once there's overwhelming evidence in one direction or another, no more serious concerns about relevant evidence being hidden, I'll talk to experts, etc. That said, it still ultimately comes down to my personal opinion, and, very reasonably, some people don't feel fully comfortable trusting that on such a controversial and politically charged topic.
- So, after that market resolves, I'll post a poll about whether Manifold users agree with the decision.
- (Alt accounts are ignored, and moderators count for 5x the votes of others.
- I don't get a vote myself.) If at least 10% of the vote disagrees, this market resolves YES.
- I will be trying to make sure that votes are an accurate representation of that user's beliefs, so as to avoid trolls who vote dishonestly.
Open markten
Crime & JusticePOLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+11.5pt65%
- Yes-11.5pt35%
- Totaal volume
- € 347,6K
- 24u volume
- € 12,4K
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Totaal volume
- € 9,8 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 6,8K
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026-0.1pt5%
- Totaal volume
- € 498,6K
- 24u volume
- € 6,1K
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- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+1.5pt42.6%
- 60++1.5pt38.6%
- 20–40+1.4pt10.9%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-7.5pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Hasan Piker arrested in 2026?
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- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
- Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 60% per 9 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial? afgewikkeld?
- Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2100 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will my resolution of the COVID-19 lab leak market be controversial? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Here is the market in question: