Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 24 okt 2026, 18:10 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 96.2%
Voorspellers
200
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd18 jan 25, 02:16 UTC1 jan 27, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Which counts will Luigi Mangione be convicted on?
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PolymarketWill Luigi Mangione live until he is sentenced?
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Same resolution criteria as: https://manifold.markets/Bayesian/will-luigi-mangione-be-convicted-of
- Except, one year later.
- This market will resolve YES if:
- Luigi Mangione is convicted of murder (any degree) in connection with Brian Thompson's death by a court of law before January 1st, 2027.
- Luigi Mangione pleads guilty to murder charges in connection with Brian Thompson's death before January 1st, 2027.
- The market will resolve NO if:
