Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Ja 86.7%
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17
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 13 uur geleden
Verouderd14 mrt 23, 19:52 UTC31 dec 30, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will Trump 2.0 be the end of Democracy as we know it?
Manifold MarketsWill Iran become a democracy in 2026?
KalshiWill Iran become a democracy by the end of 2040?
Manifold MarketsIran a liberal democracy in 2032, conditional on regime change in 2025 or 2026?
Manifold MarketsIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
PolymarketUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketRegels
To have a precise definition, it has to be rated at least "flawed democracy", and above "hybrid regime", by Democracy Index.
Open markten
Middle EastPOLYMARKETIsrael closes its airspace by which date?
- September 30+21.6pt100%
- May 8-1.4pt0%
- May 31-1.2pt0%
+16 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 25,7 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 695K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.5pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIAl Qadsiah vs Al Ahli Saudi
- Al Qadsiah+21.0pt68.6%
- Tie-3.0pt20.6%
- Al Ahli Saudi-17.0pt10.8%
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.0pt55.1%
- Benjamin Netanyahu28.6%
- Naftali Bennett8.2%
+16 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
- No+0.1pt98%
- Yes-0.1pt2%
- Totaal volume
- € 6,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 107,6K
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
- No+0.1pt100%
- Yes-0.1pt0%
- Totaal volume
- € 1,5 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 104,5K
- US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- Al-Ittihad vs Al-Fayha
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
- Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Netanyahu out by which date?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will Israel be a democracy in 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 87% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will Israel be a democracy in 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Will Israel be a democracy in 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will Israel be a democracy in 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: To have a precise definition, it has to be rated at least "flawed democracy", and above "hybrid regime", by Democracy Index.