Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 59.6%
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9
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 10 uur geleden
Verouderd14 okt 25, 15:25 UTC31 dec 34, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will India settle their Kashmir conflict with Pakistan before January 1st 2035?
Manifold MarketsIndia strike on Pakistan by which date?
PolymarketWill Pakistan become more authoritarian in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Pakistan have a major civil war by the end of 2035?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
PolymarketRegels
Update 2025-10-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Take over" is defined as controlling the government, regardless of whether this occurs through a coup or democratic process.
- Islamist groups include organizations like Hamas.
- Currently, Tehreek-e-Labbaik is noted as the only major Islamist political party in Pakistan (less extreme than Hamas).
- Update 2025-10-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If Tehreek-e-Labbaik is a small constituent of a parliamentary coalition of mostly non-islamist parties, that will not count as an islamist takeover.
- Update 2026-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution will be delegated to ChatGPT (or Gemini if ChatGPT no longer exists in 2035) to determine whether a group/individual qualifies as Islamist.
- Asim Munir has been ruled to not count as an Islamist for resolution purposes.
Open markten
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt75%
- New People (NL)-4.1pt21%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 22,2 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 470,8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt48.3%
- October 31-2.0pt29.3%
- September 30-4.0pt12.1%
+17 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30+1.0pt80%
- September 18+1.0pt75%
- September 11+6.5pt70%
+2 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.2pt96%
- Yes+0.2pt4%
- Totaal volume
- € 35,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 100,1K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 extra uitkomsten
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- July 310%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- What will Trump say during RNC Convention (Night 2)?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will islamist group(s) take over Pakistan before 2035??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 60% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will islamist group(s) take over Pakistan before 2035? afgewikkeld?
- Will islamist group(s) take over Pakistan before 2035? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2034 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will islamist group(s) take over Pakistan before 2035? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Update 2025-10-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): "Take over" is defined as controlling the government, regardless of whether this occurs through a coup or democratic process.