Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040?
EconomieOne-OffChinaGeopolitiekMacro & Economy13jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 63.6%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 11 uur geleden
Verouderd18 feb 22, 20:40 UTC1 jan 40, 05:00 UTC
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KalshiRegels
This question resolves to YES if China surpasses the United States before January 1st 2040 Eastern Time on ALL three of the following metrics:
- Nominal GDP per the International Monetary Fund.
- If the IMF ceases to exist or stops publishing figures, I'll choose another organization at my discretion.
- Military expenditures per the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
- If the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute ceases to exist or stops publishing figures, I'll choose another organization at my discretion.
- The Nature Index.
Open markten
Economy
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52%
- No change-3.0pt46.1%
- 25 bps decrease+0.1pt1%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 89,4 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 2,3 mln.
KALSHICPI in August
- Above -0.3%99%
- Above -0.1%99%
- Above 0.0%99%
+12 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 323,8K
- 24u volume
- € 25,3K
KALSHIInflation in August 2026 (CPI YoY)
- Above 2.5%99%
- Above 2.6%99%
- Above 2.8%99%
+23 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 523K
- 24u volume
- € 22K
KALSHIGovernment shutdown on Oct 1, 2026?
- No98%
- Yes+1.0pt2%
- Totaal volume
- € 611,8K
- 24u volume
- € 12,8K
KALSHIUS government budget balance in 2026
- Above -8.5% of GDP97%
- Above -8.0% of GDP86%
- Above -7.5% of GDP58%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 10,5K
- 24u volume
- € 10,5K
KALSHIRecession this year?
- No94%
- Yes+1.0pt6%
- Totaal volume
- € 2,9 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 7,7K
- Recession in 2027?
- Will the Citrini scenario happen?
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- Eurozone GDP growth in Q3 2026
- China’s government budget balance in 2026
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 64% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040? afgewikkeld?
- Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2040 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will China surpass the United States economically, militarily, and scientifically before 2040? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This question resolves to YES if China surpasses the United States before January 1st 2040 Eastern Time on ALL three of the following metrics: