What will happen in the world throughout the 2020s
31.7 ptn (24u)RegelgevingOne-OffMacro en economieTechRuimtevaartEconomieAIGeopolitiekChinaLatijns-AmerikaGezondheid en geneeskunde3jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingA country officially transitions to 100% renewable energy for electricity. 81.7%+31.7ptKoploper van 16 uitkomsten
Voorspellers
13
Vraagtype
multiple choice
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
7d wijziging
+31.7 pts
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 minuten geleden
11 okt 26, 03:29 UTC31 dec 29, 11:00 UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Resolution criteria
- Each option in this market resolves independently to YES, NO, or N/A based on whether the specified event occurs on or before December 31, 2029, 23:59 UTC:
- A human lands on Mars: Resolves YES if a crewed space mission successfully lands a living human on the surface of Mars.
- A major global economy adopts a central bank digital currency (CBDC): Resolves YES if a top-10 economy by nominal GDP (e.g., US, China, Eurozone members, Japan, UK, India, Brazil) officially launches and deploys a retail or commercial CBDC nationally.
- Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is officially recognized by a major research body: Resolves YES if a major AI research institution (e.g., OpenAI, DeepMind, Anthropic, or an international body like AAAI) formally announces that an AI system has achieved human-level general intelligence.
- A permanent base is established on the Moon: Resolves YES if a habitat intended for sustained or recurring human presence (e.g., NASA Artemis Base Camp or the International Lunar Research Station) is operational on the lunar surface.
